2014 CES Day 2

Day 2 started out as a bust, as I was unable to find the first appointment of the day. When I made the appointment, I thought it was at the MGM Grand Hotel, but when I generated the map in the morning, I found it was in a place called Signature at the MGM Grand, which is actually several blocks away. I decided to try to make it anyway, because I was intrigued by the description of the event, presenting 7 high tech startups. However, after walking about a mile to where the location should be, all I came to was an imposing looking building with a guarded gate and no name to verify that it was the correct location. I figured if they were going to that much trouble to be unapproachable I would oblige them, and tramped off to my next engagement, a meeting with Plextor at the Bellagio. Plextor is a Taiwanese manufacturer of storage devices that seems to be trying to remain obscure while marketing about the best SSD drives in the world. They also have a line of Blu-ray/DVD drives that have become legendary in the consumer community for their speed and durability. In their hospitality suite high above the strip, they demonstrated their new lines of SSD drives by showing identical computers booting in significantly less time when using Plextor SSD drives instead of Seagate mechanical drives. They claim to have the best quality drives on the market, lasting longer than any of their competitors. The drives are assembled by Plextor in Taiwan from components provided by Toshiba and other quality manufacturers, tied together with Plextor’s proprietary firmware. At CES, they introduced a new consumer line, as well as an enterprise line of 2.5” drives with capacities up to 512 GB. They also introduced a line of new form factor SSD drives that come in a memory stick-like form factor that attach either through a PCI bus interface or directly on motherboards being manufactured with the new sockets. They were showing a Gigabyte (another manufacturer from Taiwan) mother board with the drive plugged in directly – imagine no disk cables! Using these drives in desktop or notebook computers will result in almost instantaneous booting from off. Plextor drives are available to consumers at the usual online sites, and they are working with PC manufacturers such as Dell to include them in their notebooks, desktops, and servers. After Plextor, I took a shuttle to the Venetian to catch a press conference, but no one was there, so I cruised the exhibits, but I didn’t find anything noteworthy. I then took a shuttle back to the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC), which took so long that I missed my next appointment. Speaking of shuttles, I forgot to mention that yesterday I tried to take the Route 5 CES shuttle from the Bellagio to the LVCC and had the wildest ride I have ever encountered. It took over an hour and was very exciting, I guess, but really uncomfortable. The woman who directed me to the bus very plainly said it was going to the Las Vegas Convention Center, so I got on. I noticed right away that it was very warm in the bus, so I took my coat off. The driver took off and went to the hotel next door, the Jockey Club/Cosmopolitan, but I noticed that he blew right past the Route 5 stop where there were passengers waiting to board. Then the driver took the wrong fork in the parking garage exit and ended up in the right turn-only lane, but turned left anyway. Unfortunately for all of us, there was a concrete divider in the street, so he had to turn and go the wrong way until he could turn around, which is no easy trick in those huge busses. Meanwhile, the heater was going full blast and it felt like it was approaching a hundred degrees. A few blocks later, the driver turned the wrong way down a one-way street and had to back out again. Finally, he reached his destination, which unfortunately was not our destination. He had driven to the Sands Convention Center instead of the LVCC. Everyone on the bus refused to get off, even when he insisted that the Sands was the correct destination. Finally, CES transportation staff were summoned and they verified that the Route 5 bus was supposed to go to the LVCC and not the Sands. Still, the bus driver insisted that he was told to go to the Sands, but of course no one believed him. He also mentioned that he had been in Las Vegas for 12 years and knew his way around. No one bought that, either. Finally, he said he would take us to the LVCC, through the goodness of his heart, because it was only a minute away. About 45 minutes later, we finally arrived at the LVCC because the driver took the most congested route possible instead of the back way the convention shuttles usually go. At least he finally turned off the heater at some point along the way. The funniest thing was, even though I heard people all around me angrily calling missed appointments and saying horrible things about the driver, everyone politely thanked him and wished him a good day as they departed. Anyway, back to Wednesday. I missed my appointment with Rabbit TV, which I hope to reschedule. Then I got lunch and went to my appointment with Taipei (Taiwan) COMPUTEX where they cover the highpoints of the show by that name that occurs every year in June. The Press conference is always interesting and highlights the impressive technology coming out of Taiwan, some of which leads the world. Highlighted manufacturers included Gigabyte. After the COMPUTEX press conference, I cruised the North Hall, which contains the iLounge which houses vendors of accessories for iPhones and the like, where I saw a flash memory card by PhotoFast that looked quite useful. I also marveled at the gigantic size of the OtterBox booth (a Colorado company) that seems to grow every year. Business must be good. I also couldn’t help but being bowled over by the number of cars on display, including some tiny little commuter car being shown by Toyota. Then I embarked on the long trek to the MGM grand for the Smart TV Alliance press conference, which was a disappointment on a lot of levels. I will expound on that later, but right now, I am off to visit the Gibson Tent for a demonstration of the new Cerwin-Vega consumer products. Check back soon for more.

2014 International CES Day 1

For the press, it is actually Day 3, because the press events began on Sunday. As usual, the most impressive Press Conference, for me, was Sony. (I should mention that I felt this way the last 4 years as well, but by the end of the conference I had changed my mind.) Sony was showing a new Music Video Recorder for $299 along with purported samples that demonstrated High Definition video with amazing clarity and amazing audio recorded by the two tiny speakers. This could dramatically increase the quality of videos on YouTube and other services and make them extremely easy to create. Sony also demonstrated editing software, but it wasn't clear about how it was distributed or priced. I am not sure that the cloud will have the capacity to store all of the huge video files that will result from widespread adoption of this device and the inevitable knockoffs. Sony also introduced their new 4K camcorder selling for around $2,000. This is really cheap for a camera capable of recording in this high resolution format, but it remains to be seen if the market cares. For their part, the entire panel at the Digital Hollywood Conference session entitled "Video Anytime: Understanding the Value Proposition" thought the 4K format and content in particular had no market appeal, and thus no return on investment. One panelist even emphatically called it "idiotic". I remember a similar response a few years ago when another panel was asked about the future of High Definition Television. Obviously, both panels were shortsighted, but the recent panel seemed misguided and out of touch with their own industry, as well. According to panelists in other presentations I attended at CES and Storage Visions, the Video production and post production industries have embraced the 4K format for several years. Several persons stated that all movies have been recorded in 4K for some time. This year's panel justified the inevitable failure of the 4K format by comparing it to the 3D format, which seems wrong-headed to me. Everyone has complaints about the 3D format, or actually formats, but the biggest one is that it is disruptive, and not in a good way. Because everything is not 3D, the viewer has to keep changing glasses, equipment, etc. Ultra HD (4K) is different - it is merely evolution, replacing the current 1K High Definition format just a it replaced whatever that was before it. Everyone sees it as an improvement and it is even less disruptive than HDTV was. In short, 4K is inevitable as are higher formats until the limit of the hardware is reached, if ever. In fact, HDTV will probably be scarce 10 years from if not sooner. Anyone who resists 4K might as well get out of the industry. All of the supporting industries are gearing up to support 4K with cheaper and faster storage and higher Internet bandwidths so it will be a smoother transition than anyone imagines. Once you have seen a 4K program, you won't want to go back. Oh, any by-the-way, Netflix supports it, so, case closed. Enough about video. The other most interesting category at this CES is the headphone. For some reason the market seems to have exploded, and everyone is bringing out new lines of headphones. There are headphones for athletes that are fitted and guaranteed never to fall out. There are over the ear, in the ear, on the ear, and hybrid varieties in thousands of colors and sizes. A Monster sales person attributed the expansion to Dr. Dre, the rap artist who brought out his own line of headphones set some kind of modern record for advertising and product placement. To me, the question is, what kind of headphone provides the best sound and the least damage to the ear? There also seems to be a dispute over which headphones are the favorites of musicians, so I will try to get to the bottom of that. In the meantime, Audio-Technica gave me a lovely pair of fitted in-the-ear headphones and promised to show pictures of me snow boarding with them on the big screen at CES. Hopefully that won't last long, and no one will see it, but I will be testing and reporting on the headphones. I am off to the ShowStoppers party/product promotion fiesta at the Wynn so there will be more from Day 1 later. Photos will be posted when I get around to it. Thanks for reading.

Consumer Electronics in the next 5 Years: A FreshBaked® Look By Greg Hill

Even though there have been significant advances in consumer electronics products in the past few years, it doesn’t seem as if they are advancing fast enough. We can only guess at the reasons that consumers can’t buy the products that they yearn for, but aren’t available yet. In fact, there is probably only one reason: profits. The “incremental evolution” business model has proven to be very profitable for electronics manufacturers and marketers in the past, so they appear to be sticking with it. A validation of the assumption that technology in the U.S. is not progressing fast enough is to take a look at other world markets, particularly in Asia. Listening to visitors from Japan and Taiwan, among others, at the CES show last January, the feeling is that if you want to see products that will hit the U.S. market in three to five years, just look at what is available in the Asian marketplace today. While this is true to some extent, there are other forces that affect the U.S. market, so let’s examine them by market segment: Personal Mobile (audio, video, phones, computing, toys, gaming) In Japan cell phones have had bar-code readers, digital TV, GPS tracking, credit card functions, video conferencing, near field communication (NFC), and high resolution cameras for years. Some of these features are starting to appear on phones in the U.S., and some will probably never make it due to bandwidth restrictions, legal impediments, or the forces of stifled competition. One item that is widely accepted in Japan will finally achieve critical mass in the U.S., and that is using phones as credit cards, including widespread use of near field communication. Progress has been crippled by the lack of cooperation by retailers and payment providers, but these problems should be resolved sooner rather than later. Strangely, banking and shopping with mobile phones has achieved widespread success in some African nations long before the U.S. Progress may be slow in this country simply because there are so many other well-accepted payment methods available to consumers, resulting in soft demand, coupled with the complexity of creating a system that will work across so many different devices and payment platforms. Early adopters like Starbucks and Target are providing incentives for consumers to pay with their phones, which will ultimately lead to mass adoption by the buying public. You can expect to see combinations of airline frequent flyer points, discounts and other incentive programs that will combine with the convenience of carrying nothing but a mobile device to make this kind of payment a compelling proposition. As far as technological advancement in cellular technology in the next 5 years, expect it to be incremental rather than generational. If the pattern of the last 30 years stays true, 5GL phones will not be announced until 2020 or so. But the good news is that “real 4GL” and LTE will eventually reach the original goal of Gigabit speeds in the next 5 years. If the vendors start to cooperate, networks will also become more dense and intelligent band seeking technology will combine to provide a more stable and consistent network for all users. The greatest functional advancement for smart phones will come from improvements in applications. As second and third generation apps become available, they will combine more sophisticated software with more powerful operational frameworks (Android, iOS, etc.) to provide features with and without hardware upgrades. Today’s mobile devices only use a fraction of their capabilities and talented teams of programmers are working around the clock to remedy the situation. As the app market matures and entry becomes more difficult due to the prevailing level of sophistication, expect the prices to increase. The most powerful apps will no longer be free unless they are tied into a sponsor. The biggest impediment to realizing the dream of having everything needed to function on a personal mobile device is of course, the government. Federal, state and local governments hinder the progress of mobile freedom by requiring citizens to carry documents, like driver’s licenses, while at the same time failing to provide alternate electronic systems due to political considerations, lack of competency, and budget shortfalls. Is there any reason why you should have to carry identification? The technology is available to eliminate such outdated customs, but the government is in no hurry to implement them. With electronic facial, fingerprint, retina recognition, among others, people can be identified to a much greater degree of certainty than a document that can be easily forged. Actually, budget squeezes may serve to accelerate the adoption of electronic systems because they are ultimately much more cost-effective. So, within 5 years, maybe all you will need is a cheap phone to access all of your financial accounts, as well as to identify yourself to the satisfaction of all commercial and governmental entities. At last, you will be able to leave home without your American Express Card, because you will have a virtual version in your mobile device. For mobile devices without cellular capability, like the iPod for example, Wi-Fi connections will become faster and more available. Advances in technology, if accompanied by vendor cooperation, could make Wi-Fi much more available. 802.11ac/ad, the follow up to 802.11n should be on the downside of its life span in 5 years, being built into all but the leading edge products, which will come equipped with the next generation. For home users, 802.11ac/ad will solve most of the problems associated with the current version, bringing greater dependability, range, and up to 7 gigabit (nominal) speeds. Assuming a faster Internet connection, this could spell the end of buffering and drops during video streaming and downloading. For users of non-cellular devices, it would mean that virtual credit and identification would be available to them with no monthly payment or contract. Beamforming, Passpoint, and Voice-Enterprise Wi-Fi enhancing technologies will make for easier and more stable connections and improve the quality of voice calls. One more thing – the current Internet will not support the wide scale adaptation of higher speed mobile devices, point-of-purchase electronic payments, HD streaming, and government-sponsored services – it is too slow and unstable. Two things may solve these problems in the next 5 years – the next generation Internet and Cloud services. The next generation internet is largely in place already – faster speeds will become available as soon as there is a way to adequately monetize them (get someone to pay for them – that’s you). Cloud services are nearly the same as a super-fast Internet – they consist of massive storage tied together by communications that are many times faster than the current Internet. So, if you put a database or movie on the cloud from your home, it is instantly available anywhere else in the world. Even if the “last mile” connection is still the current slow Internet, the performance is greatly enhanced. Summary: Faster, more stable connections, more features standardized across vendors, and greater capabilities through better apps. Coming soon: Home (audio, video, computing, automation, communication, toys, gaming) Coming soon: Automobile (audio, video, computing, geo, gaming)

Hanks' Thumb Shot

All Joking Aside (AJA), That's What Makes Twitter Worthwhile (TWMTW)! I Didn't Know (IDK) Movie Stars even had Thumbnails (TNs)!
Seriously, folks, a day never goes by that Twitter doesn't give me at least a small chuckle. Between TrollFoot, Hanx, Alec Baldwin, Steve Martin, Allysa Milano, Conan, Dave Winer, Rolloff, Shandling, et al, someone always delivers. Cheers to all, because these days, with the passings, troubles at NetFlix, and the Phillies losing, we all need a laugh!
The Baseball Observer

My Favorite Booth at CES 2011

The South Hall Lower Level at the Las Vegas Convention Center was filled with sounds like I imagine it would be like if everyone carried boom boxes instead of iPods. Every imaginable musical noise, and some not so musical, emanated from aptly named booths such as Earthquake Sound Corporation, Zound Industries, Sonic Emotion, and Skull Candy. But one booth usually only produced a faint scratching and jingling din. That would be the Gibson guitar booth, where there would always be a dozen or so smiling guitar players wearing clunky headphones emanating from black boxes attached to electric guitars. "Picking and grinning" may be a trite expression, but it was happening continually at booth 20949. I joined them a few times (maybe more) myself, not being able to resist the re-creations of the legendary Les Pauls and the amazing self-tuning, bluetooth-enabled Firebird. Gibson bought a lot of other products, aside from the demos, and shared the booth with corporate stable mates Wurlitzer, Dobro, Epiphone, and others, but I could never get past the those guitars. Maybe next year.

CES 2011

Freshbaked and the Baseball Observer will be at CES starting January 4th. Watch this space for a running commentary along with tweets and re-tweets to the left on this page. What will the electronics industry come up with after the introduction of 3D HDTV at last year's show? Maybe a bigger question will be what can all of Apple's competitors do to counter the iPad? Will Microsoft finally come up with something to make them relevant again? These and other questions may be answered, but maybe not.

Acronyms for Scrum

Everyone thinks Scrum is an acronym anyway, so we might as well come up with one that works. There must be some out there already, but I can't find them, so please let me know if you run across any and I will publish the links here. Let's start with a few off the top of my head:
Scientific Catalytic Revolutionary Uplifting Meetings
Speeding Confusion Relying on Useless Methods
Society for Creating Really Ugly Messes
Sailing Can Rarely Uphold Meaning
Soporific Conversation that is Really Uninteresting and Mundane
Scrums Consist of Rapid Ugly Meetings
Speedy Conversations Relating Useless Memories
Slowly Consuming RUM
Standing, Contemplating, Relating, Understanding, Movement