Consumer Electronics in the next 5 Years: A FreshBaked® Look By Greg Hill

Even though there have been significant advances in consumer electronics products in the past few years, it doesn’t seem as if they are advancing fast enough. We can only guess at the reasons that consumers can’t buy the products that they yearn for, but aren’t available yet. In fact, there is probably only one reason: profits. The “incremental evolution” business model has proven to be very profitable for electronics manufacturers and marketers in the past, so they appear to be sticking with it. A validation of the assumption that technology in the U.S. is not progressing fast enough is to take a look at other world markets, particularly in Asia. Listening to visitors from Japan and Taiwan, among others, at the CES show last January, the feeling is that if you want to see products that will hit the U.S. market in three to five years, just look at what is available in the Asian marketplace today. While this is true to some extent, there are other forces that affect the U.S. market, so let’s examine them by market segment: Personal Mobile (audio, video, phones, computing, toys, gaming) In Japan cell phones have had bar-code readers, digital TV, GPS tracking, credit card functions, video conferencing, near field communication (NFC), and high resolution cameras for years. Some of these features are starting to appear on phones in the U.S., and some will probably never make it due to bandwidth restrictions, legal impediments, or the forces of stifled competition. One item that is widely accepted in Japan will finally achieve critical mass in the U.S., and that is using phones as credit cards, including widespread use of near field communication. Progress has been crippled by the lack of cooperation by retailers and payment providers, but these problems should be resolved sooner rather than later. Strangely, banking and shopping with mobile phones has achieved widespread success in some African nations long before the U.S. Progress may be slow in this country simply because there are so many other well-accepted payment methods available to consumers, resulting in soft demand, coupled with the complexity of creating a system that will work across so many different devices and payment platforms. Early adopters like Starbucks and Target are providing incentives for consumers to pay with their phones, which will ultimately lead to mass adoption by the buying public. You can expect to see combinations of airline frequent flyer points, discounts and other incentive programs that will combine with the convenience of carrying nothing but a mobile device to make this kind of payment a compelling proposition. As far as technological advancement in cellular technology in the next 5 years, expect it to be incremental rather than generational. If the pattern of the last 30 years stays true, 5GL phones will not be announced until 2020 or so. But the good news is that “real 4GL” and LTE will eventually reach the original goal of Gigabit speeds in the next 5 years. If the vendors start to cooperate, networks will also become more dense and intelligent band seeking technology will combine to provide a more stable and consistent network for all users. The greatest functional advancement for smart phones will come from improvements in applications. As second and third generation apps become available, they will combine more sophisticated software with more powerful operational frameworks (Android, iOS, etc.) to provide features with and without hardware upgrades. Today’s mobile devices only use a fraction of their capabilities and talented teams of programmers are working around the clock to remedy the situation. As the app market matures and entry becomes more difficult due to the prevailing level of sophistication, expect the prices to increase. The most powerful apps will no longer be free unless they are tied into a sponsor. The biggest impediment to realizing the dream of having everything needed to function on a personal mobile device is of course, the government. Federal, state and local governments hinder the progress of mobile freedom by requiring citizens to carry documents, like driver’s licenses, while at the same time failing to provide alternate electronic systems due to political considerations, lack of competency, and budget shortfalls. Is there any reason why you should have to carry identification? The technology is available to eliminate such outdated customs, but the government is in no hurry to implement them. With electronic facial, fingerprint, retina recognition, among others, people can be identified to a much greater degree of certainty than a document that can be easily forged. Actually, budget squeezes may serve to accelerate the adoption of electronic systems because they are ultimately much more cost-effective. So, within 5 years, maybe all you will need is a cheap phone to access all of your financial accounts, as well as to identify yourself to the satisfaction of all commercial and governmental entities. At last, you will be able to leave home without your American Express Card, because you will have a virtual version in your mobile device. For mobile devices without cellular capability, like the iPod for example, Wi-Fi connections will become faster and more available. Advances in technology, if accompanied by vendor cooperation, could make Wi-Fi much more available. 802.11ac/ad, the follow up to 802.11n should be on the downside of its life span in 5 years, being built into all but the leading edge products, which will come equipped with the next generation. For home users, 802.11ac/ad will solve most of the problems associated with the current version, bringing greater dependability, range, and up to 7 gigabit (nominal) speeds. Assuming a faster Internet connection, this could spell the end of buffering and drops during video streaming and downloading. For users of non-cellular devices, it would mean that virtual credit and identification would be available to them with no monthly payment or contract. Beamforming, Passpoint, and Voice-Enterprise Wi-Fi enhancing technologies will make for easier and more stable connections and improve the quality of voice calls. One more thing – the current Internet will not support the wide scale adaptation of higher speed mobile devices, point-of-purchase electronic payments, HD streaming, and government-sponsored services – it is too slow and unstable. Two things may solve these problems in the next 5 years – the next generation Internet and Cloud services. The next generation internet is largely in place already – faster speeds will become available as soon as there is a way to adequately monetize them (get someone to pay for them – that’s you). Cloud services are nearly the same as a super-fast Internet – they consist of massive storage tied together by communications that are many times faster than the current Internet. So, if you put a database or movie on the cloud from your home, it is instantly available anywhere else in the world. Even if the “last mile” connection is still the current slow Internet, the performance is greatly enhanced. Summary: Faster, more stable connections, more features standardized across vendors, and greater capabilities through better apps. Coming soon: Home (audio, video, computing, automation, communication, toys, gaming) Coming soon: Automobile (audio, video, computing, geo, gaming)